CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T13:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32317/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is the M8.7 flare peaking at 2024-07-29T12:55Z from AR 3762 with associated dimming, EUV wave, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T18:00Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Jul 30 1232 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40730 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Jul 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST ... Coronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 13:36 UTC on July 29. It is probably associated with an M8.7 flare from NOAA AR 3762. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 750 km/s. An Earth-directed component may be expected to arrive starting from late August 01.Lead Time: 53.20 hour(s)
Difference: -1.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-07-30T11:35Z
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